CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust - Annual Report 2021
Future Supply Total supply between 2022 and 2024 averages approximately 0.4 million sq ft per annum, which is slightly lower than the last five-year (2017 – 2021) and three-year (2019 – 2021) historical annual average of 0.8 million sq ft and 0.5 million sq ft respectively. Despite softer market conditions, the limited retail supply pipeline is likely to help cushion the level of vacancies and degree of rental decline. With pandemic-induced delays in construction schedules, projects which were originally due for completion by 2021 were pushed back to 2022. In 2022, approximately 0.4 million sq ft will be completed across different micro-markets, including Grantral Mall, the retail component of Boulevard 88, and the retail component of Guoco Midtown, estimated to be completed in 2H 2022. Some 0.4 million sq ft is scheduled to complete in 2023, with the majority of the retail supply located in the Fringe area, including One Holland Village and The Woodleigh Mall. In 2024, the retail supply is projected to be approximately 0.4 million sq ft, of which Outside Central Region (OCR) will be the largest contributor with the completion of the development of Pasir Ris 8 and renovation works of Changi Airport Terminal 2. Across the various micro-markets from 2022 to 2024, the OCR and Fringe markets are the largest sources of future pipeline, accounting for 43.0% and 41.8% respectively. The Downtown Core, Orchard Road and Rest of Central Region micro-markets, in entirety, represent the remaining 15.3% of the upcoming supply within the same period. ESTIMATED BREAKDOWN OF PRIVATE RETAIL STOCK OWNERSHIP IN SINGAPORE (%) ESTIMATED SHARE OF PRIVATE RETAIL STOCK BY OWNER (%) Corporations/ Developers 43.8 Funds / Insurance 7.3 REIT 21.0 Strata-titled 13.7 Others/ Unknown 14.2 Source: CBRE Singapore, 4Q 2021 Source: CBRE Singapore, 4Q 2021 CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust 9.1% Mercatus 4.4% Frasers Centrepoint Trust 4.1% Far East Organization 3.5% Lendlease 2.6% Mapletree Commercial Trust 2.4% Changi Airport Group 2.1% United Industrial Corporation Limited 2.0% City Developments Limited 1.9% Suntec REIT 1.8% Others/ Unknown 66.1% ISLANDWIDE FUTURE RETAIL SUPPLY (2022-2024) 2024 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2023 2022 Net Lettable Area (million sq ft) Orchard Road Downtown Core Rest of Central Region Fringe Outside Central Region 0.1 0.06 0.4 0.02 0.05 0.3 0.03 0.2 0.03 0.06 0.02 Source: CBRE Singapore, 4Q 2021 Historical 5-Year Net Annual Average Supply: 0.8 mil sq ft CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust 102 Independent Market Review
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