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for 2013 at S$7.1 billion, comprising
approximately 17.2% of total retail
sales. This is a high proportion by
international standards, reflecting
the importance of tourism to the
overall retail market.
International visitor arrivals
are forecasted to grow at around
3.9% per annum over 2013-2018,
representing a moderation
in growth relative to the previous
decade. The slowdown in forecast
growth is partly due to an expected
moderation in the global tourism
growth rate as well as increased
regional competition. Nonetheless,
this still translates to tourist spending
accounting for an increasing
proportion of total retail sales over
time, reaching 18.9% in 2018.
RETAIL SALES
Retail sales growth in Singapore
has remained resilient over the last
decade, with only major shocks such
as the SARS epidemic, GFC and more
recently economic contractions in
the Eurozone, US and China being
the main drags on growth at various
times. Despite these downturns,
nominal retail sales over 2001-2013
still grew by 3.8% per annum. In real
terms, retail sales grew by 2.6% per
annum over the same period.
In 2013, retail sales recorded flat
real year-on-year growth of 0.1%,
while nominal retail sales growth
was slightly negative at -0.2% as
a result of retail price deflation.
A key factor impacting the flat
retail sales over 2013 has been
subdued tourist retail spending.
The retail spending per capita
in Singapore is estimated to
decline marginally over 2013.
This is representative of subdued
consumer sentiment, particularly
over the first half of the year, due to
economic uncertainty.
On the back of improving local
and global economies, retail sales
growth is expected to increase
to 3.9% in 2014. Over the period
2013-2018, nominal and real
retail sales are expected to record
respective growth rates of 4.0%
and 3.0% per annum.
TOURISM
Tourism has seen significant
growth in Singapore in recent years,
with average growth of 14.4% per
annum (or equivalent to 1.5 million
visitors per annum) over 2009-2013.
This growth has been supported
by a number of tourist-oriented
developments such as Marina Bay
Sands and Resorts World Sentosa,
as well as the increasing number
of international renowned events
such as the Singapore Grand
Prix and Singapore Arts Festival.
More recently, growth has been
moderating to an estimated
7.5% in 2013.
Based on the latest statistics from
the Singapore Tourism Board,
despite a 9.0% year-on-year
increase in visitor numbers, total
retail sales from tourists decreased
by an estimated 4.0% year-on-year
in 1Q 2013 and rebounded by
9.0% year-on-year in 2Q 2013. We
expect the tourist retail spending to
increase by approximately 2.5% for
the whole of 2013. Urbis estimates
tourist retail spending in Singapore
Independent Retail
Market Overview
SINGAPORE RETAIL FLOOR SPACE SUPPLY 1
(million sq ft)
Source: Urbis.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
63.9 64.7 65.5
59.5
49.5 51.9
63.5
58.2 62.2
56.9
48.9
61.1
54.5
45.2
43.8
Forecast
1 As at end of each year.
2 ‘Others’ refer to other forms of retail space such as Housing Development Board’s shop space.
Shopping Centre Others 2
Clarity 86 CapitaMall Trust Annual Report 2013